A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
