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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.